Комментарии по рынку Форекс

• The dollar and particularly the yen dropped on Tuesday as risk appetite returned and international equities gained. US stocks rallied as a surge in commercial paper sales signaled the Federal Reserve may be succeeding in unlocking credit markets. The Fed is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate a 50-basis point to 1.00% on Wednesday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 91.56 points, or 11%, to 940.48 after sliding to the lowest level since March 2003 yesterday. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence plunged to a record low and US house prices in 20 metropolitan areas fell at the fastest pace since records began in 2001. The euro, sterling and Canadian dollar all gained. The Australian dollar surged to 0.64 following increased risk appetite and overnight interventions by the Reserve Bank of Australia to defend the 0.60 level.


• The USD/JPY gained the most since 1974 on a global stock rally and speculation the Bank of Japan will cut interest rates. The improvement in overall risk sentiment led investors to sell the low-yielding yen and buy higher-yielding assets. Carry-trade unwinding that had been powerful lately came to a halt. The USD/JPY long-term trend is still down. There are resistance in the 99-area and support in the 96. Overall, the pair will likely continue to follow developments in the US stock market.

Financial and Economic News and Comments

US & Canada

• US home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas fell a record 16.6% y/y and 1.0% m/m in August, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes. Home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas dropped a record 17.7% y/y and 1.1% m/m in August, marking an 11th consecutive monthly record decline. The indexes showed August home prices continue to decline, with areas along the Sun Belt being hit hardest.

• US consumer confidence fell to 38.0 in October, an all-time low, following 61.4 in September, as the financial crisis took a major toll on sentiment, according to the Conference Board consumer confidence index. The present situation index declined to 41.9 in October from 61.1 in September. The consumer expectations index for the state of economic activity over the next six months dropped to 35.5 from September’s 61.5.

• The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -26 in October from -18 in September. Among the index’s components, shipments fell to -24 from -16, new orders dropped to -35 from -23, and the jobs index declined to -15 from -13. Raw materials prices grew at a slightly slower pace, while finished goods prices increased at a somewhat quicker pace. Overall, the data show manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region contracted more sharply in October with price growth expected to advance a bit more quickly over the next six months.


• After the Federal Reserve began buying the corporate IOUs, sales of longer-term commercial paper surged 10-fold. Companies yesterday sold more than 1,500 issues totaling a record $67.1 billion of the debt due in more than 80 days, compared with a daily average of 340 issues totaling $6.7 billion last week, the Fed reported. The record surge shows the Fed’s efforts to unlock the market may be effective.

Europe

• Germany’s consumer confidence unexpectedly rose for a second month in November with GfK AG’s German consumer climate index unexpectedly improving to 1.9 from October’s 1.8. Business cycle expectation plunged to -27.5 from -15.7, while consumers’ willingness to buy fell to -18.2 from -12.8. However, income expectations increased for a third consecutive month to -12.9 from -14.1. The figures suggest a drop in oil prices helped consumers to cope with the global economic slowdown; nevertheless, as Germany is on the brink of a recession, conditions may worsen in the near-term.

• The UK CBI sales index held steady at -27 for a second consecutive month in October, according to the Confederation of British Industry’s latest distributive trades survey. Volume of sales improved to -33 from September’s -36, while orders increased to -36 from -39. The CBI survey tends to be volatile so October’s minor improvement may be short-lived and no improvement is anticipated in November as the UK slips into a recession.

Asia-Pacific

• Japan’s retail sales declined 0.4% y/y in September after increasing 0.7% y/y in August, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said. Retail sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.5% m/m in September, following August’s 0.7% m/m increase. Large retailers’ sales dropped 3.3% y/y, following August’s 2.2% y/y decline.


• Australia’s NAB business confidence index stood at -7 in Q3 following -8 in Q2, the National Australia Bank reported.

FX Strategy Update