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Construction

Main Indicator: Construction Spending

Most Recent Release

January
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.6% -1.3% -0.4% -1.2%

Monthly Change for November
Official Release: PDF

In the US, construction spending for the month of November fell 0.6%, but this was better than forecasts. The report showed that gains in the commercial and government buildings partially cushioned the slump in residential real estate.

From the Release: "The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during November 2008 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,078.4 billion, 0.6 percent (±1.6%)* below the revised October estimate of $1,085.3 billion. The November figure is 3.3 percent (±2.2%) below the November 2007 estimate of $1,115.3 billion. During the first 11 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $998.4 billion, 5.3 percent (±1.3%) below the $1,054.3 billion for the same period in 2007."

Table of Past Data

4/15/16/27/18/19/210/111/312/11/5
Actual-0.3%-1.1%-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%-0.6%0.0%-0.3%-1.2%-0.6%
Forecast-1.0%-0.8%-0.5%-0.5%-0.4%-0.3%-0.4%-0.8%-0.9%-1.3%
Previous-1.0%-0.4%-0.6%-0.1%0.0%0.3%-1.4%0.3%0.0%-0.4%
Revised From-1.7%-0.3%-1.1%-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%-0.6%0.0%-0.3%-1.2%

Past Releases

December
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.2% -0.9% 0.0% -0.3%

Monthly Change for October
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during October 2008 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,072.6 billion, 1.2 percent (±1.4%)* below the revised September estimate of $1,085.7 billion. The October figure is 4.6 percent (±1.9%) below the October 2007 estimate of $1,124.2 billion. During the first 10 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $906.3 billion, 5.7 percent (±1.4%) below the $960.9 billion for the same period in 2007."

November
3rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.3% -0.8% 0.3% 0.0%

Monthly Change for September
Official Release: PDF

Construction outlay numbers for September was better than expect although it did point to a fall in spending. Also, the previous release of a flat reading was revised up to a 0.3% increase. The residential component was revised to 1.9% from the 0.3% originally seen. However this component saw a -1.3% reading for September. On the year residential construction spending is down 27.1% and is still the major drag on the overall figures.

From the release: "The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during September 2008 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,060.1 billion, 0.3 percent (±1.6%)* below the revised August estimate of $1,063.5 billion. The September figure is 6.6 percent (±2.1%) below the September 2007 estimate of $1,134.9 billion.

During the first 9 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $807.3 billion, 6.2 percent (±1.4%) below the $860.5 billion for the same period in 2007."
October
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% -0.4% -1.4% -0.6%

Monthly Change for August
Provided by: Census Bureau
Official Release: PDF

US construction spending performed better than expected in August. Total spending was flat, but July's figure was revised sharply lower. Residential outlays saw a rare increase and offset a dip in commercial building. Residential spending is still 27.9% lower in August on an annual basis, as builders are reluctant to build new homes as inventories are way up and new homes are not selling well. That was apparent in the most recent new home sales figure which saw August's sales down 11.5%.

From the Release: "The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during August 2008 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,072.1 billion, nearly the same as (±1.4%)* the revised July estimate of $1,071.8 billion. The August figure is 5.9 percent (±1.9%) below the August 2007 estimate of $1,138.8 billion. During the first 8 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $713.5 billion, 5.9 percent (±1.4%) below the $758.1 billion for the same period in 2007."

September
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.6% -0.3% 0.3% -0.4%

Monthly Change for July
Provided by: Census Bureau

June y/y: -5.9%
Annual Rate: pr. $1,081.1B

Construction spending fell 0.6% in July, as the housing slump continues unabated. Its the largest decline since February. In a bit of good news from the release, June's figure was revised up to show a 0.3% increase compared to a 0.4% decline that was originally stated.

The Dollar weakened slightly following the release, as the ISM Manufacturing Index, which came out concurrently hit expectations. Still, the Dollar had a strong overnight session and at 10:10 AM was still higher compared to the Euro, Yen and Pound. 

August
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.4% -0.4% 0.0% -0.4%
Monthly Change for June
Provided by: Census Bureau
June y/y -5.9% Annual Rate: $1,081.1 Billion

Total residential construction decreased 1.7%, while total non-residential increased 0.4%. Total private construction was down 0.4%, while the public sector saw -0.2% in constrcution spending. The story is the same here as it has been for months. Residential construction is declining while non-residential industries are sustaining. 

 

July
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.4% -0.5% -0.1% -0.4%
Monthly Change for May
Provided by: Census Bureau

Spending on construction fell 0.4% in May as residential construction spending fell 1.6% as it did in April. Non-residential construction spending increased 0.3%. Private sector spending dropped by 0.7%, versus a publich sector increase of 0.4% in May. Construction activity has shrank since December and shows no bottom yet. There is still a hefty inventory of unsold homes in the market.

June
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.4% -0.5% -0.6% -1.1%
Monthly Change for April
Provided by: Census Bureau

Construction outlays continue to decline in April although at a less than expected rate. The residential sector saw the 2.1% decline in spending. This brings the annual figure to a decline of 20.8% since April 2007. The pace of slowing has decelerated somewhat as the housing market is to pick up a bit in the summer. However, this month's release showed that even government construction spending slowed, by 0.3%. The slowdown in the private residential sector continues to be the main drag, but the public sector, mostly non-residential, seems to be finally slowing as well.
May
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.1% -0.8% -0.4% -0.3%
Monthly Change for March
Provided by: Census Bureau

Down 1.1%, total spending for construction decreased to an annual rate of $1.124trillion. The larger than expected decline mainly came from the residential sector, which was down 4.5% in March, and down 19.7% on the year. Non-residential spending increased 1.3% in March. Spring is suppose to be a recovery period for the housing market. So far this Spring, any signs of recovery have been short-lived, and the slowdown does not seem to be decelerating. Housing starts, building permits, pending home sales continue to tumble to historic lows. Economists and analysts are seeing no recovery until 2009.

April
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.3% -1.0% -1.0% -1.7%
Monthly Change for February

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