For December
Provided by: Sentix

The Sentix group's investor confidence measure for December fell for the sixth straight month, plunging to a record low of 42.3, from -36.4. The slowdown is very apparent and undeniable. An expectations index did provide some hope inching up to -42, from -42.75.

For November
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

PPI Input y/y: 7.5%, forecast 6.5%, pr. 13.8% (Oct), 24.0% (Sep),
28.8% (Aug), 30.1% (Jul), 30.8% (Jun)
PPI Output y/y: 5.1%, forecast 5.2%, pr. 6.8 (Oct), 8.5% (Aug), 9.1% (Aug),
10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)

Input prices are declining at a rapid pace, falling 3.3% in October, and bringing the year on year change to 7.5% from 13.58%. Meanwhile, because manufacturers are able to lower their costs, the prices of goods they sell are also declining. The output price index shrank 0.7% on the month, and rose 5.1% on the year (fomo 6.8% y/y). This is good news for consumers who will feel the lower prices at the retail end and leaves the door wide open for the BoE to continue cutting rates.

Final Version for 3rd Quarter
Provided by: Cabinet Office
Official Figures: PDF

Annualized GDP: -1.8%, forecast -0.9%, prel. -0.4%,
pr. -3.7% (2Q), 3.2% (1Q)
Nominal GDP q/q:: -0.7%, forecast -0.7%, prel. -0.5%,
pr. -1.2% (2Q), 0.2%(1Q)

Japan's economy shrank more than originally estimated in the 3rd quarter. Growth was revised down to show a 0.5% contraction in quarterly terms while the annual pace decreased at an annual 1.8% pace. Those figures had been originally estimated at -0.2% and -0.4% respectively in the preliminary release. With export demand hurting as the global recession deepens Japanese firms are cutting back production, jobs and spending. Business spending declined 2% for the quarter, it was originally reported as a 1.7% drop. Separate capital spending figures last week showed a sixth straight month of decline. Companies also reduced the amount of inventory they held, which accounted for a 0.2% drop in growth, as they did not want to be caught with extra stockpiles in the face of a deepening recession at home. With companies on the defensive, expect production levels to continue falling, while profits fall leading to job losses.

The news increased the feeling of risk aversion in the markets following a rather positive day for investor sentiments on Monday. The Yen gained on its rivals as did the US Dollar.

For November
Provided by: Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)
Official Release: HTML PDF

British housing prices continued to fall in November, though the RICS house price balance improved to -76.5 from -81.0. That was the highest level since February and indicates to some easing in the rate of decline though still points to a very depressed housing market. Completed sales per surveyor fell to 10.6 from 10.9, a fresh low for the series that began in 1978. Sales are down 55% on the year as the UK economy fell into recession amid a tightening of credit domestically and globally.  

From the Release: The RICS UK Housing Market Survey for November shows a continued improvement in the price balance, although it still remains very depressed in a historical context. The level of transactions edged down a little further but lead activity indicators such as buyer enquiries have now turned positive. The (seasonally adjusted) net balance of surveyors reporting falling rather than rising prices improved from 81.0 to 76.5 in November. This is the highest level since February 2008.

The main factor that is depressing prices is the large stock of property on estate agents' books relative to the pool of able buyers rather than any surge in distressed selling. Indeed, new instructions to sell property continued to remain broadly stable. However, it is not insignificant that since May, the number of regions in the survey where new instructions have been rising has been trending upwards."

For October (s.a.)
Provided by: German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Trade Balance (n.s.a): 16.4B, forecast 15.0B, pr. 15.0B (Sep), 10.6B (Aug),
Imports (s.a.) m/m: -3.5%, forecast -2.7%, pr. 0.9% (Sep), -2.5% (Aug),
7.4% (Jul), -0.4% (Jun)
Exports (s.a.) m/m: -0.5%, forecast 0.1%, pr. 0.7 (Sep), -0.5% (Aug),
-1.7% (Jul), 4.1% (Jun)

From the Release: "According to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office, Germany exported commodities to the value of EUR 89.7 billion and imported commodities to the value of EUR 73.4 billion in October 2008. German exports of October 2008 were thus 1.4% and imports 5.4% above the respective October 2007 levels. Upon calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports decreased by 0.5% and imports by 3.5% on September 2008."

For October
Provided by: Communities and Local Government
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "The key points from the release are:

• UK house prices were 7.4 per cent lower than in October 2007.
• The mix-adjusted average house price in the UK stood at £203,539 in October 2008 (not seasonally adjusted).
• UK house prices fell by 5.3 per cent in the quarter ending October 2008. This compares with a fall of 1.6 per cent for the quarter ending July 2008.
• Annual average house prices fell in England (-7.3 per cent), Wales (-7.8 per cent), Scotland (-4.5 per cent) and Northern Ireland (-20.5 per cent).
• Annual average house prices paid by first time buyers in October 2008 were 9.7 per cent lower than a year ago. By comparison average house prices paid by former owner occupiers were 6.6 per cent lower."

For October
Provided by: Office of National Statistics (ONS)
Current Release: HTML PDF

Ind. Prod. y/y: -5.2$, forecast -3.0%, pr. -2.9% (rev from -2.2%, Sep),
-2.3% (Aug), -1.9% (Jul), -1.7% (Jun), -1.6% (May), 0.2% (Apr)

From the Release: "Total production output decreased by 1.7 per cent between September and October. Mining and quarrying output decreased by 7.3 per cent. Oil and gas production decreased by 7.6 per cent and energy supply output increased by 1.2 per cent. Increased demand for gas used in electricity generation and colder temperatures led to an increase in output of 3.6 per cent in gas supply. Electricity supply output increased by 0.1 per cent and water supply output increased by 2.0 per cent in the latest month."

For December
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

Current Conditions: -64.5, forecast -60.0, pr. -50.4 (Nov), -35.9 (Oct),
-1.0 (Sep)

German investor confidence surprised forecasts on the upside, and rose for a second straight month, bringing the sentiment index to -45.2. It reflects a positive reaction to the ECB's recent interest rate cuts which included an unprecedented 75 point basis cut last week and to recent measures announced by the government. That includes a $41 billion stimulus plan passed on December 5th. Lower interest rates and government action join falling oil prices and  a weaker Euro in helping to calm some of the pessimism seen recently, though this index of sentiment is one of the few indicators showing a silver lining to German economic data. Current conditions slumped to -64.5. 

From the Release: "The slight improvement of the ZEW economic sentiment indicator signals that the worries about a further aggravation of the recession in the mid of 2009 seem to be limited. The interest rate cuts of the central banks worldwide and the economic rescue packages should bolster the economic development.

The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany further worsened in December 2008. The corresponding indicator dropped by 14.1 points to minus 64.5 points."

Provided by: Bank of Canada
Official Statement: Press Release

The Canadian central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, increasing its pace of cuts. Expectations had been for a 50 basis point cut, though with other central banks around the world accelerating the pace at which they are lowering borrowing costs, there was a good chance that the Canadian central bank would follow suit. The move puts the interest rate at its lowest level since 1958. The move was needed to bolster economic growth as the global recession intensifies. Today's accompanying announcement also said for the first time that the Canadian economy "is now entering a recession." If economic conditions continue to deteriorate, as we saw recently with employment and housing starts figures, the bank seems ready to cut rates again.

From the Release: "The outlook for the world economy has deteriorated significantly and the global recession will be broader and deeper than previously anticipated. Global financial markets remain severely strained. Measures taken by major governments are beginning to encourage credit flows, although it will take some time before conditions in financial markets normalize. In addition, a series of recently announced monetary and fiscal policy actions will also support global economic growth.

While Canada's economy evolved largely as expected during the summer and early autumn, it is now entering a recession as a result of the weakness in global economic activity. The recent declines in terms of trade, real income growth, and confidence are prompting more cautious behaviour by households and businesses.

In light of the weakening outlook for growth and inflation, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy interest rate by a total of 75 basis points in October and by an additional 75 basis points today. These monetary policy actions provide timely and significant support to the Canadian economy."

For December
Provided by: Westpac Melbourne Institute
Official Release: PDF

Consumer confidence increased in Australia for a second straight month as consumers responded positively to the RBA's effort to bring down borrowing costs, the lower prices for gas and a government stimulus package. It is a welcome sign heading into the holiday season.

From the Release: "The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment increased by 7.5% in December from 85.5 in November to 92.0 in December.

Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans, commented, "Despite the announcement of a further 1% cut in the Reserve Bank's cash rate, an 18.4% fall in petrol prices and a share market rally in recent weeks, it was not obvious that the Consumer Sentiment Index would have shown such a significant jump. The gloom surrounding the global economy and the associated threat to Australia could have easily overwhelmed all the positives. For instance, last month consumers were responding to a cumulative 1.75% reduction in the RBA's cash rate, a 12.6% fall in petrol prices, and the announcement of the Commonwealth government's $10.7bn fiscal stimulus package, and the Index was starting at a lower base. But it managed a disappointing rise of only 4.3% in November."

For November
Provided by: Bank of Japan
Current Release: PDF Table

CGPI m/m: -1.9%, forecast -1.7%, pr. -1.6% (Oct), -0.4% (Sep),
-0.1% (Aug), 2.0% (Jul), 0.8% (Jun), 1.1% (May), 0.6% (Apr)

Japan's corporate goods price index cooled to an annual pace of 2.8% in November. The indicator measures the cost that companies pay for goods, including energy and raw materials. On the month, prices were down 1.9%, led by drop in crude oil and other commodities. Still, lower costs to produce are not going to help offset the loss of demand facing companies during this global recession. The news, along with recent data from consumer prices and costs to companies of services show a shift towards deflation. However it remains to be seen if the reduction in oil and energy costs will filter down to other goods and services and feed further expectations of falling prices.

For October
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

The number of home loans granted to build or buy homes and apartments rose 1.3% in October, which beat economists' forecasts. The central bank has moved aggressively to bring down borrowing costs after the credit crunch stalled the economy's growth. The RBA has cut rates by 3% since September, and the government has passed a stimulus package that had consumers feeling slightly more optimistic according to data releases today. A rebound in housing is a welcome sign that may signal that Australia is in a better suited position to deal with its downturn.

The Aussie was quiet overnight however, inching up against the Yen and Dollar.  

For December
Provided by: Credit Suisse
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "The Financial Market Test Switzerland, carried out by Credit Suisse in cooperation with the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), revealed in December that economic prospects brightened up just a little at a very low level. The Credit Suisse ZEW indicator of economic expectations edged up by 12.3 points compared with the previous month's reading and is now hovering at the -76.2 mark. Although respondents view the current economic situation in a slightly more optimistic light as well compared with last month's results, the corresponding balance improved by merely 6.2 points and remains in negative territory at the -7.2 threshold. A clear majority of the financial market experts surveyed (78.6%) continue to anticipate sinking short-term interest rates, while the balance of inflation expectations remained low at -73.8. The outlook regarding the labor market trend turned out to be more downbeat in December, with 97.5% of the experts predicting a rising unemployment rate on a six-month horizon."

For October
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Current Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): -4.1%, pr. -1.5% (Sep), -1.6% (Aug)
Inventories/Sales (s.a): 1.16, pr. 1.12 (Sep), 1.10 (Aug)

US wholesale inventories fell 1.1% during October as demand collapsed amid the slumping economy. With consumer spending very weak companies are not carrying large inventories, as they don't want to be holding extra stockpiles following the holiday season. Usually, a decline in inventories means stores are drawing down their stocks and will have to replace them, adding to economic activity. That may not be the case now though as sales of US wholesalers plummeted by 4.1%. With sales down more than inventories the amount of goods on hand relative to sales rose to 1.16 from 1.12.

For November
Provided by: Business NZ/Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The Bank of New Zealand - Business NZ seasonally adjusted PMI for November (35.4) slipped 7.9 points from October and was again the lowest recorded value since the survey began in 2002. It was also the first time the main series value had recorded a sub-40 result. The significant fall mirrors offshore activity levels, and was the seventh consecutive month of contraction for the sector.

All five seasonally adjusted main diffusion indices were in contraction, with four recording their lowest result to date. Production (29.3) experienced a significant fall to post its first sub-30 result, while employment (39.9) dropped back to under 40. New orders (35.0) fell during November while deliveries of raw materials (37.2) experienced its third consecutive fall. Finished stocks (47.3) remained largely unchanged from October, although still in contraction."