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Sunday, November 30
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUS	5:30pm	Manufacturing PMI	32.7		40.4
		For November Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG) Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...) From the Release: ■ "Manufacturing activity fell for a sixth month in a row in November. ■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® fell solidly, by 7.7 points to 32.7, well below the 50 point mark separating expansion from contraction. This represents a second consecutive new low for the series since it was begun in 1992. ■ Recent results reflect an accelerating loss of consumer and business confidence, driven by worsening news on the global economy, falling household wealth, and the weak housing sector. This climate is being reflected in falling demand for manufactures. ■ November’s fall in the Australian PMI® reflects declines across all components of the index. Production fell for the sixth consecutive month and more strongly than in recent months. This reflected the ongoing decline in new orders, which fell rapidly and for the seventh consecutive month. In line with the easing of production, employment fell for the ninth month in November. ■ On the positive side, wages growth eased slightly and selling price growth was broadly stable. Input cost growth rose marginally. ■ Inventories fell moderately, while supplier deliveries fell solidly. Exports fell sharply in line with the decline in global manufactures trade."
AUS	6:30pm	TDMI Inflation Gauge	-0.6%		-0.2%
		For November Provided by: Melbourne Institute (Subscription Required) Inflation Gauge y/y: 3.0%, pr. 3.9% (Oct), 4.5% (Sep), 4.2% (Aug), 4.6% (Jul), 4.8% (Jun), 4.5% (May), 4.3% (Apr), 4.0% (Mar)
AUS	7:30pm	Company Operating Profits q/q	5.2%	3.3%	15.7% Revised from 14.3%
		For 3rd Quarter (s.a.) Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics Inventories s.a. q/q: 0.7%, forecast 0.7%, pr. 0.8% (rev from 0.3%, 2Q), 1.5% (1Q), Australia's company profit growth slowed in the 3rd quarter. Gross operating profits rose 5.2%, compared to the 15.7% seen in the 2nd quarter. Profits for transport and storage companies fell 16.2%, earnings for manufacturers declined 9.9%, while retailers saw a 7% fall. Those were offset by a surge of 19.4% in the profits of mining companies. Weaker corporate earnings will filter down into more job losses which can hurt consumer spending and overall economic activity. The RBA meets tonight (10:30 PM EST) and is expected to cut interest rates another 75 basis points to 4.50% from 5.25%. With economic growth cooling, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is trying to keep the economy out of recession in 2009.
JPN	8:30pm	Average Cash Earnings y/y	-0.1%	0.1%	0.2% Revised from 0.1%
		For October Provided by: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
JPN	11:30pm	BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks

Monday, December 01 \| AUD/JPY - Aussie Slides on Risk Aversion, Falls in Global Stocks: The Aussie-Yen pair fell in overnight trading, testing support around the 60 level after a more than 200 pip slide. From there the pair consolidated. Stocks in Sydney and Tokyo were down around 1.5%, while European and US stocks saw deeper declines. That attributed to an increase in risk aversion and gains by the Yen and US Dollar. EUR/JPY - Euro Stocks Slide, Pressuring Euro vs Yen: The Euro-Yen plunged 370 pips during today's session, falling from 121.40 to 117.70. Key indexes in Europe were off more than 5% as the weak manufacturing data surprised forecasts on the downside and joined news from the UK, China and Russia also showing record-pace contractions in manufacturing activity the last month. The Euro was already falling to end last week, and its next key level of support is at the 116.50 level. GBP/JPY - Pound Falls 800 Pips to Yen as Traders Price in Larger Rate Cuts: With poor UK releases from the manufacturing and housing sector, and risk aversion dominating overnight and NY trading, the Pound plunged more than 800 pips vs. the Yen, wiping away the rally that started on November 21^st. GBP/USD - Pound Slides 580 Pips vs Dollar: The Pound-US Dollar pair started the week at the 1.54 level, broke support at 1.5250, and fell to new support at 1.48, a total change of 580 pips. Traders are betting on a more aggressive rate cut by the Bank of England. EUR/GBP - Euro Surges 270 Pips on Pound Weakness: The Euro-Pound saw a large move as well, surging 270 pips from its open near 0.8240. That up-move wipes away about 4 sessions of gains for the Pound, and the pair is now back to its levels seen to start last week. Traders are most likely expecting bolder action from the Bank of England than they are from the ECB this week. USD/JPY - Dollar Slides to Yen as US Stocks Open to 5% Drop: The Dow Jones Index opened to a 450 drop, continuing the sell-off seen in Europe. The Nasdaq and S&P indexes, and oil, were off about 6% as of 3 PM EST. The Dollar-Yen pair fell 220 pips as investor sentiments soured, before finding support at the 93 level. That's the lowest the pair has been since October 28^th. Market Highlights Nilsson's Commentary Full report: Global Contraction Deepening and US Officially in Recession Video Recap
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUS	12:30am	RBA Commodity Index y/y	35.0%		35.9% Revised from 32.4%
		For November Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia Commodity Index m/m: -2.7%, pr. -4.6% (rev from -5.1%, Oct), 0.7% (Sep), 2.0% (Aug), 3.6% (Jul), 7.9% (Jun), 6.1% (May), 9.4% (Apr) Commodity prices fell for a third straight month in November, as the price of copper, aluminum, beef and veal, and gold were the largest negative contributors. In Australian dollar terms prices rose 0.5%, as the weak Australian currency kept the measure inflated at record high.
GER	2:00am	Retail Sales m/m	-1.6%	0.5%	-1.0% Revised from -2.3%
		For September (s.a.) Provided by: Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) Official Release: Press Release Retail Sales y/y: -0.3%, pr. 2.4% (rev from 1.2%, Sep), -3.0% (Aug), 0.0% (Jul), -3.9% (Jun), 0.7% (May), -0.2% (Apr), pr. -6.8% (Mar) Retail sales in Germany surprised forecasts on the downside, dropping1.6% from September, when they declined a reviseed 1%. Forecasts had called for a gain in sales. But with the German economy in recession, confidence among consumers is low, hurting sales coming into the holiday season. The Euro, which was pressured to end last week, will continue to slide as traders factor in more rate cuts from the ECB, with a 50 basis point cut forecasts for Thursday's meeting.
SWZ	3:30am	SVME PMI	35.2	45.5	47.0
		For November Provided by: Credit Suise Official Release: PDF From the Release: "The SVME Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped 11.8 index points in November to come in at 35.2 points. This is its sharpest fall and lowest-ever level since the survey began in 1995. UP until August, the PMI was still in the growth zone, and it fell only marginally short of the 50-point threshold in September and October. Now it is well into the red. The threemonth average also shows that industry is slamming on the brakes –smoothed out over three months, the PMI comes to 43.4 points. And while the average index for the year to date is still above the 50-point growth threshold, at 52.8 points, it is still 15% below the year-back figure of 61.9 points. Evidently, all investment that is not absolutely necessary has been deferred or even shelved completely owing to November's escalation of the financial crisis. All five index subcomponents were behind the drop, and all subcomponents are currently below the 50-point threshold. It is nonetheless positive that demand for labor remained relatively robust over the past month. The employment component softened only slightly (3.3 points) and is only just outside the growth zone, at 46.0 points. Price pressures have also eased: the purchasing prices subcomponent again fell markedly, by 9.5 points to 34.8 points. Meanwhile, the output (27.7 points) and suppliers' delivery times (35.8 points), as well as the backlog of orders (29.9 points) indicators all fell to historical lows. And the stocks of purchases component is now at its lowest level since March 2007 (47.7 points)."
EMU	4:00am	Manufacturing PMI	35.6	36.2	36.2
		Final Version for November Germany: 35.7, prel. 36.7, pr. 42.9 (Oct), 47.4 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug), 50.9 (Jul), France: 37.3, prel. 37.9, pr. 40.6 (Oct), 43.0 (Sep), 45.8 (Aug), 45.1 (Jul), Italy: 34.9, pr. 39.7 (Oct), 44.4 (Sep), 47.1 (Aug), 45.3 (Jul), 46.9 (Jun) Spain: 29.4, pr. 34.6 (Oct), 38.3 (Sep), 42.4 (Aug), 39.2 (Jul), 40.6 (Jun) The final version of manufacturing PMI was revised down from the preliminary version of 36.2 to a series-low of 35.6. In October, the PMI was 41.1. The series started in June 1997. Its the 6th straight month of contraction, as all the survey's indexes - output, new order, employment, purchasing activity, and outstanding business - declined to record lows. Euro-zone manufacturing is suffering as both export and domestic demand has collapsed in the face of the growing impact of the financial crisis on the real economy. The ECB will be forced to respond to the weakening state of the economy by accelerating its pace of interest rate cuts. The central bank meets on Thursday where it is expected to lower rates by 50 basis points.
UK	4:30am	Manufacturing PMI	34.4	39.8	40.7 Revised from 41.5
		For November Provided by: Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) (subcr. req') The manufacturing PMI in the UK fell to 34.4 in November, a much bigger contraction than expected by forecasts. That puts the index to the lowest level since the series began 16 years ago in 1992. The weak result hurt UK stocks, pressured the Pound, and increased speculation that the Bank of England will act even more aggressively in its interest rate meeting on Thursday. Expectations are for a 100 basis point cut to 2% from 3%, but with the economy reeling, policy members may take even bolder action. The main drag on the index was a steep fall in new orders, as that sub gauge hit an all-time low of 29.7, down from 37 the previous month. With manufacturing activity so poor, it will add pressure to an economy already reeling from weaker consumer spending, a deteriorating housing market, weak stocks, and the turmoil in the financial sector. Inflation measures were down, which should give the BOE more leeway to cut rates if necessary.
UK	4:30am	Net Consumer Lending	1.3B	2.2B	1.8B Revised from 2.4B
		For October Provided by: Bank of England Official Release: HTML PDF Net Consumer Credit: £0.8B, forecast £0.5B, pr. £0.3B (Sep), £1.1B (Aug), £1.1B (Jul), £0.9B (Jun), £1.4B (May), £0.9B (Apr) Net Mortg. Lend.: £0.5B, forecast £1.1B, pr. £1.5B (rev from £2.2B, Sep), -£0.7B (Aug), £3.2B (Jul), £3.1B(Jun), £4.1B (May), £6.4B (Apr) Total net lending to individuals increased by £1.3 billion in October compared to September. That was a sharp drop from September's figure as mortgage lending fell to a meager £500 million. Net consuemr credit rose to £800 million. The number of loans approved for house purchases slipped to 32K, a fresh all time low. The housing sector is seeing tight credit conditions, which is evident by the weak amount of pounds going towards mortgage lending. Along with weak data from the manufacturing sector, this data will increase the pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates aggresively this week. Expectations are already high, as economists see policy makers reducing borrowing costs by 100 basis points to 2%.
UK	4:30am	Mortgage Approvals (BOE)	32K	32K	33K
		For October Provided by: Bank of England Official Release: HTML PDF Net Mortg. Lend.: £0.5B, forecast £1.1B, pr. £1.5B (rev from £2.2B, Sep), -£0.7B (Aug), £3.2B (Jul), £3.1B(Jun), £4.1B (May), £6.4B (Apr)
CAN	8:30am	Gross Domestic Product	0.1%	0.2%	-0.3%
		Monthly Rate For September Provided by: Statistics Canada Official Release: Press Release Annualized GDP: 1.3%, forecast 1.1%, pr. 0.6% From the Release: "Canadian producers increased their output in the third quarter. The production of goods rebounded in the third quarter following four consecutive quarterly declines. The increase was led by the mining sector, notably support activities for oil and gas extraction, as well as construction. The manufacturing sector edged up while forestry continued its decline. Production in the services industries continued to grow, with notable gains in the public sector and, to a lesser extent, in retail trade and wholesale trade. Economic growth has been weak since the beginning of the year, as foreign demand has weakened and growth of domestic demand has slowed. Exports declined for the fifth consecutive quarter and growth of final domestic demand decelerated to 0.1%, largely as a result of a slowdown in consumer expenditure. The instability of world financial markets did not appear to have a significant impact on funds borrowed in domestic financial markets in the third quarter. Funds borrowed by the domestic non-financial sectors on financial markets slowed. The fluctuation was similar to that which has typically been observed in the past."
USA	10:00am	ISM Manufacturing Index	36.2	37.2	38.9
		For November Official Release: HTML New Orders: 27.9, pr. 32.2 (Oct), 38.8 (Sep), 48.3 (Aug), 45.0 (Jul) Production: 31.5, pr. 34.1 (Oct), 40.8 (Sep), 52.1 (Aug), 52.9 (Jul) Employment: 34.2, pr. 34.6 (Oct), 41.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug), 51.9 (Jul) Prices: 25.5, pr. 37.0 (Oct), 53.5 (Sep), 77.0 (Aug), 88.5 (Jul) The manufacturing sector contracted in November at the fastest pace in 26 years, adding to the woes facing the US economy. The Euro-zone, UK, China, and Russia all saw similar weak performances as the world's major economies succumb to a global slowdown. The financial crisis has seeped into main street as retail sales fall and household spending is being curtailed in the face of weakening economic activity. In response to weaker sales and demand, companies are cutting production. The news will add pressure on policy member at the Fed to continue lowering rates and on the government to pass some kind of package to stimulate the economy. From the Release: "When comparing November to October, the PMI indicates a continuing rapid rate of contraction in manufacturing. New orders have contracted for 12 consecutive months, and are at the lowest level since June 1980 when the index registered 24.2 percent. Order backlogs have fallen to the lowest level since ISM began tracking the Backlog of Orders Index in January 1993. The Prices Index at 25.5 percent indicates that commodity prices continue to decline at a rapid rate. This is the lowest reading for the index since May 1949 when it registered 20.1 percent. Manufacturing contracted in November as the PMI registered 36.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the 38.9 percent reported in October. This is the lowest reading since May 1982 when the PMI registered 35.5 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting."
USA	10:00am	ISM Manufacturing Prices	25.5	33.0	37.0
USA	10:00am	Construction Spending	-1.2%	-0.9%	0.0% Revised from -0.3%
		Monthly Change for October Official Release: PDF From the Release: "The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during October 2008 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,072.6 billion, 1.2 percent (±1.4%)* below the revised September estimate of $1,085.7 billion. The October figure is 4.6 percent (±1.9%) below the October 2007 estimate of $1,124.2 billion. During the first 10 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $906.3 billion, 5.7 percent (±1.4%) below the $960.9 billion for the same period in 2007."
USA	1:45pm	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
USA	3:00pm	Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks
JPN	6:50pm	M3 Money Supply y/y		2.0%	1.4%
AUS	7:30pm	Retail Sales m/m		0.1%	0.2%
		For October (Trends Basis) Official Release: Australian Bureau of Statistics Retail Sales m/m (s.a.): forecast -0.2%, pr. -1.1% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug) Retail Sales y/y (s.a.): pr. 1.6% (Sep), 3.5% (Aug)
AUS	7:30pm	Current Account		-11.2B	-12.8B
		3rd Quarter Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics
JPN	10:00pm	BOJ Monetary Policy Report
AUS	10:30pm	RBA Interest Rate Statement		4.50%	5.25%
		Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia Previous Release: Statement

Tuesday, December 02
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
SWZ	1:45am	Consumer Price Index m/m		-0.3%	0.5%
		For November Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office CPI y/y: forecast 2.0%, pr. 2.6% (Oct), 2.9% (Sep), 2.9% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul), 2.9% (Jun), 2.9% (May), 2.3% (Apr)
UK	3:00am	House Prices m/m (Halifax Bank of Scotland)		-1.0%	-2.2%
		To be released between December 2nd and 5th For November Provided by: Halifax Bank Of Scotland Previous Release: PDF House Prices 3m/y: forecast -14.1%, pr. -13.7% (Oct), -12.4% (Sep), -10.9% (Aug), -8.8% (Jul), -6.1% (Jun), -3.8% (May), -0.9% (Apr) Avg. Price (s.a.): pr. £168,176 (Oct), £172,108 (Sep), £174,178 (Aug), £177,351 (Jul), £180,344 (Jun), £184,111 (May)
UK	4:30am	Construction PMI		33.8	35.1
		For November Provided by: Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) (sub. req'd)
EMU	5:00am	Producer Price Index m/m		-0.3%	-0.2%
		For Otober Provided by: EuroStat Previous Release: PDF PPI y/y: forecast 7.1%, pr. 7.9% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug), 9.0% (Jul), 8.0% (Jun), 7.1% (May), 6.1% (Apr), 5.8% (Mar)
USA	11:30am	Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks
USA	4:00pm	Motor Vehicle Sales		10.5M	10.6M
		Domestic Sales for November
AUS	5:30pm	Services PMI			42.1
		For November (s.a.) Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG) Previous Release: PDF (Save Link As...)
UK	7:01pm	Consumer Confidence Index (NCCI)		54	55
		For November (s.a.) Provided by: Nationwide Current Release: PDF Current Conditions: pr. 35 (Oct), 39 (Sep), 46 (Aug), 49 (Jul), 58 (Jun) Expectations Index: pr. 69 (Oct), 58 (Sep), 58 (Aug), 55 (Jul), 67 (Jun) Spending Index: pr. 55 (Oct), 53 (Sep), 52 (Aug), 53 (Jul), 63 (Jun)
AUS	7:30pm	Gross Domestic Product q/q		0.2%	0.3%
		For 3rd Quarter s.a. Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics GDP y/y: forecast 1.9%, pr. 2.7% (2Q) 3.6% (1Q), 4.3% (4Q '07)
NZ	9:00pm	Commodity Price Index (ANZ)			-7.4%
		For November Provided by: ANZ National Bank

Wednesday, December 03
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
EMU	4:00am	Services PMI		43.3	43.3
		Final Version for November Germany: prel. 46.2, pr. 48.3 (Oct), 50.2 (Sep), 51.4 (Aug), 53.1 (Jul) France: prel. 46.6, pr. 47.5 (Oct), 50.1 (Sep), 48.0 (Aug), 47.5 (Jul) Italy: pr. 45.7 (Oct), 49.4 (Sep), 48.5 (Aug), 45.6 (Jul), 50.1 (Jun)
UK	4:30am	Services PMI		41.2	42.4
		For November Provided by: Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (sub'n req'd)
EMU	5:00am	Retail Sales m/m		-0.4%	-0.2%
		For October Provided by: Eurostat Previous Release: PDF Retail Sales y/y: forecast -1.4%, pr. -1.6% (Sep), -1.5% (Aug), -1.8% (Jul), -3.2% (Jun), 0.2% (May), -2.9% (Apr)
UK	5:30am	BRC Shop Price Index y/y			3.0%
		For November Provided by: British Retail Consortium Previous Release: DOC Shop Prices m/m: pr. -0.1% (Oct), 0.0% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug), 0.1% (Jul)
USA	8:15am	ADP Employment Change		-200K	-157K
		For October Provided by: Automatic Data Processing Previous Release: PDF
USA	8:30am	Labor Productivity q/q		1.0%	1.1%
		Final Version for 3rd Quarter (s.a annual rate) Provided by: Department of Labor Current Release: HTML Labor Costs q/q: prel. 3.6% pr. -0.1% (2Q), 2.2% (1Q), 2.8% (4Q)
USA	8:30am	Labor Costs q/q		3.6%	3.6%
		Final Version for 3rd Quarter Provided by: Department of Labor
USA	10:00am	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index		42.5	44.4
		For November Latest Release Provided by: Institute of Supply Management Previous Release: PDF Business Activity Index: pr. 44.2 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep), 51.6 (Aug), 49.6 (Jul) New Orders Index: pr. 44.0 (Oct), 50.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug), 47.9 (Jul) Employment Index: pr. 41.5 (Oct), 44.2 (Sep), 45.4 (Aug), 47.1 (Jul) Prices Index: pr. 53.4 (Oct), 70.0 (Sep), 72.9 (Aug), 80.8 (Jul)
USA	2:00pm	Beige Book
NZ	3:00pm	RBNZ Interest Rate Statement		5.00%	6.50%
		Provided by: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Previous Release: Statement
JPN	6:50pm	Capital Spending q/q		-9.9%	-6.5%
		For 3rd Quarter Provided by: Ministry of Finance Excl. Software: forecast -10.9%, pr. -7.6% (2Q), -5.3% (1Q), -7.3% (4Q)
AUS	7:30pm	Building Approvals		0.2%	-7.2%
		For October m/m (s.a.) Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Approvals y/y: forecast -21.5%, pr. -21.6% (Sep), -8.6% (Aug), -3.7% (Jul), -7.8% (Jun), -0.4% (May), 5.2% (Apr)
AUS	7:30pm	Trade Balance		1.45B	1.46B
		For October Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics Imports m/m: pr. 7% (Oct), -2.0% (Aug), 4.0% (Jul), -1.0% (Jun), 6.0% (May) Exports m/m: pr. 8% (Oct), 6.0% (Aug), -1.0% (Jul), 2.0% (Jun), 1.0%, (May)

Thursday, December 04
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
SWZ	1:45am	Gross Domestic Product q/q		0.0%	0.4%
		For 3rd Quarter Provided by: Swiss Statistics Previous Release: Press Release (PDF) GDP y/y: forecast 1.8%, pr. 2.3% (2Q) 3.0% (1Q), 3.6% (4th Q)
EMU	5:00am	Gross Domestic Product q/q		-0.2%	-0.2%
		Final Estimate for 3rd Quarter Provided by: EuroStat Advance Release: PDF GDP y/y: adv. 0.7%, pr. 1.4% (2Q), 2.1% (1Q '08), 2.2% (4Q '07)
UK	7:00am	BOE Interest Rate Statement		2.00%	3.00%
		Provided by: Bank of England Previous Release: Statement
EMU	7:45am	ECB Interest Rate Statement		2.75%	3.25%
		Provided by: European Central Bank Previous Release: Statement
CAN	8:30am	Building Permits		-6.0%	13.4%
		For October Provided by: Statistics Canada Previous Release: News Release
EMU	8:30am	ECB President Trichet Speaks
USA	8:30am	Jobless Claims		540K	529K
		For Week Ending November 29th Current Release: The Department of Labor 4-Week M.A. (Nov 29): pr. 518K, 506.5K, 491K, 477K, 477K, 480.2K, 483.5K Continuing Claims (Nov 22): pr. 3.96M, 4.01M, 3,897M, 3.84M, 3.71K
CAN	10:00am	Ivey PMI		50.0	52.2
		For November Latest Release: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
USA	10:00am	Factory Orders		-4.0%	-2.5%
		For October Provided by: US Census Bureau Ex. Transportation: pr. -3.7% (Oct), -3.3% (Sep), 1.0% (Aug), 2.3% (Jun) Ex. Defense: pr. -3.3% (Oct), -4.2% (Sep), 2.0% (Aug), 1.4% (Jun)
UK	10:30am	Leading Index			-1.1%
		For October Provided by: Conference Board Current Release: Press Release Coincident Index: pr. 0.1% (Sep), 0.2% (Aug)