United States Country Profile - Economy, Currency, Central Bank, Canadian Dollar, CAD

Introduction

The United States is the world's largest economy at $13.21 trillion in 2006, with a population of 303 million. The economy boasts high levels of productivity and invests large amounts in research and high technology. New York City is one of the three financial centers of the world. The US is the most significant nation when it comes to trade, leading the world in imports, though its large trade deficit is funded through selling treasury bonds inside and outside the country. Since the US also has a large federal deficit, the US has large national and external debt. The boom in the housing sector, fueled by low interest rates, and strong growth, slowed and reversed in 2006. As a result, the US Dollar was particularly hard hit in 2007.

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United States' Fundamental Indicators and Chart

Monthly Data for January, 2009

Date	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
1/2	10:00am	ISM Manufacturing Index	32.4	35.5	36.2
		For December Most Current Release: HTML New Orders: 22.7, pr. 27.9 (Nov), 32.2 (Oct), 38.8 (Sep), 48.3 (Aug) Production: 25.5, pr. 31.5 (Nov), 34.1 (Oct), 40.8 (Sep), 52.1 (Aug) Employment: 29.9, pr. 34.2 (Nov), 34.6 (Oct), 41.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug) Prices: 18.0, pr. 25.5 (Nov), 37.0 (Oct), 53.5 (Sep), 77.0 (Aug) US manufacturing ended 2008 in a grim state, falling to its lowest level since June 1980. The index fell 3.8 points to 32.4in December from 36.2 in November. All the main sub-gauges showed further deterioration with new orders down to their worst level since 1948. The prices index continued to fall showing an ongoing retreat in inflationary pressures. Only in August this sub-gauge was as high as 77, as oil and other commodities felt the last stages of their speculative bubble and fell in response to the onset of the current global recession. That is the weakest reading for prices since June 1949. From the Release: "Manufacturing activity continued to decline at a rapid rate during the month of December. The decline covers the full breadth of manufacturing industries, as none of the industries in the sector report growth at this time. New orders have contracted for 13 consecutive months, and are at the lowest level on record going back to January 1948. Order backlogs have fallen to the lowest level since ISM began tracking the Backlog of Orders Index in January 1993. Manufacturers are reducing inventories and shutting down capacity to offset the slower rate of activity."
1/2	10:00am	ISM Manufacturing Prices	18.0	20.5	25.5
1/4	1:15pm	FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
		Comments on "The Revival of Fiscal Policy" Provided by: Federal Reserve Bank of San Fransisco Offfical Release: Speech (PDF)
1/4	5:50pm	FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
		US Monetary Policy Objectives in the Short and Long Run Provided by: Federal Reserve Bank of San Fransisco Official Release: Speech (PDF)
1/5	10:00am	Construction Spending	-0.6%	-1.3%	-0.4% -1.2%
		Monthly Change for November Official Release: PDF In the US, construction spending for the month of November fell 0.6%, but this was better than forecasts. The report showed that gains in the commercial and government buildings partially cushioned the slump in residential real estate. From the Release: "The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during November 2008 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,078.4 billion, 0.6 percent (±1.6%)* below the revised October estimate of $1,085.3 billion. The November figure is 3.3 percent (±2.2%) below the November 2007 estimate of $1,115.3 billion. During the first 11 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $998.4 billion, 5.3 percent (±1.3%) below the $1,054.3 billion for the same period in 2007."
1/5	1:15pm	FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
		Provided by: Federal Reserve Bank of San Fransisco
1/5	4:00pm	Motor Vehicle Sales	10.3M	10.0M	10.2M
		Domestic Sales for December Provided by: Motor Intelligence
1/6	10:00am	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index		36.9	37.3
		For December Latest Release Provided by: Institute of Supply Management Business Activity Index: pr. 37.3 (Nov), 44.2 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep), 51.6 (Aug) New Orders Index: pr. 35.4 (Nov), 44.0 (Oct), 50.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug) Employment Index: pr. 31.3 (Nov), 41.5 (Oct), 44.2 (Sep), 45.4 (Aug) Prices Index: pr. 36.6 (Nov), 53.4 (Oct), 70.0 (Sep), 72.9 (Aug)
1/6	10:00am	Pending Home Sales m/m		-0.9%	-0.7%
		For November Provided by: National Association of Realtors Previous Release: Press Release Sales y/y: pr. -1.0% (Oct), 1.6% (Sep), 8.8% (Aug), -6.8% (Jul), -12.3% (Jun), -14.0% (May), -13.1% (Apr)
1/6	10:00am	Factory Orders		-2.5%	-5.1%
		For November Provided by: US Census Bureau Ex. Transportation: pr. -4.2%, -3.7% (Oct), -3.3% (Sep), 1.0% (Aug) Ex. Defense: pr. -4.3%, -3.3% (Oct), -4.2% (Sep), 2.0% (Aug)
1/6	2:00pm	FOMC Meeting Minutes
		Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for December 16th Provided by: Federal Reserve Previous Release: HTML PDF
1/7	8:15am	ADP Employment Change		-450K	-472K
		For December Provided by: Automatic Data Processing Previous Release: PDF
1/8	8:30am	Jobless Claims		540K	492K
		For Week Ending January 2nd Current Release: The Department of Labor 4-Week M.A. (Jan 2): pr. 552K, 558K, 543.7, 540.5K, 524.5, 518K, 506.5K Cont. Claims (Dec 27): pr. 4.50M, 4.38M, 4.43M, 4.08M, 3.96M, 4.01M
1/8	3:00pm	Consumer Credit m/m		-0.5B	-3.5B
		For November Provided by: Federal Reserve
1/9	8:30am	Nonfarm Employment Change		-475K	-533K
		For December Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics Unempl. Rate: forecast 7.0%, pr. 6.7% (Nov), 6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 5.7% (Jul), 5.5% (Jun), 5.5% (May)
1/9	8:30am	Unemployment Rate		7.0%	6.7%
		For December Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics See "Nonfarm Employment Change" above for commentary.
1/9	8:30am	Average Hourly Earnings		0.2%	0.4%
		For December Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics Earnings y/y: pr. 3.7% (Nov), 3.5% (Oct), 3.4% (Sep), 3.6% (Aug), 3.4% (Jul), 3.4% (June)
1/9	10:00am	Wholesale Inventories m/m		-0.9%	-1.1%
		For November Release from U.S. Census Bureau Previous Release: PDF Sales (s.a): pr. -4.1% (Oct), -1.5% (Sep), -1.6% (Aug) Inventories/Sales (s.a): pr. 1.16 (Oct), 1.12 (Sep), 1.10 (Aug)

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Central Bank Watch - Latest FOMC Decision

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December
16th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.25%

0.50%

1.00%

N/A

Provided by: Federal Reserve
Current Release: Statement

Discount Rate: 0.50%, pr. 1.25% (Oct 29), 1.75% (Oct 8)

The Fed cut rates by 75 basis points to bring the rate down to a target range of 0 to 1/4 percent. The move is the last cut the Fed can take and will it will keep rates low "for some time." They will also try an array of new economic measures to stimulate spending. The Fed will now focus on increasing the quantity of money in the financial system. The Dollar was pressured in the aftermath of the release.

From the Release: "The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent...

The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. As previously announced, over the next few quarters the Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant. The Committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities. Early next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity."

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