Example 2 Cont. - Our second, longer, divergence comes before the shorter one shown above:
Figure 7 – Bearish Divergence from Aug. 4th to Aug. 12th of 2005.
- This example’s analysis begins on Aug 3rd/4th when a peak is formed on the A/D indicator. Price makes a new high at this point compared to the last week.
- The Euro climbs higher during the rest of the week (8/1-8/5). Already
there is some distribution as the A/D indicator does not follow to its
own, higher level.
- The next week, price inches up while A/D heads lower. Selling pressure
shown in the highlighted box on the A/D panel does not materialize.
- The EUR/USD pair goes up at the end of the week reaching a new peak at
1.2485. This peak is higher than the high price reached on Aug 4th. The
A/D indicator sets a high also, but that high is lower than the one on
the 4th. Price stalls and reverses. One looking at this development
would realize they have some divergence between price and their
indicator.
- There is some selling in the 4 hour period after the peak (highlighted
red candle), as some traders may be acting on this divergence or a
piece of pro-US data.
- After the weekend, many traders see this divergence and know that a
Dollar rally may be very likely. If the new week starts with pro-Dollar
fundamental data one needs to be prepared for a significant move. The
Dollar rally does occur and traders act for the next week bringing the
price of the EUR/USD pair from 1.2485 to 1.2125. This is a move of 360
pips.
It may now be clearer how to use the A/D indicator to help in trading decisions. Divergences in volume from price are key indications that a reversal may be at hand. After seeing these two examples lets finish off with one more bearish divergence. That will make three trading setups in one month using the A/D indicator!